Investigation 2 (provisional plan)

Recap: What is Investigation 2?

Investigation 2 relates to the following question:

To what extent did the regions of the world which did not implement mandatory restrictions (or imposed very light constraints) suffer adverse levels of mortality as a consequence of this decision?

What is my provisional plan for approaching this investigation?

I plan to approach this investigation with the following steps:

  • Step 1: Identify credible sources of mortality information for as many territories as possible.

  • Step 2: Identify the territories which did not implement mandatory restrictions (or imposed very light constraints), justifying their selection.

  • Step 3: Invite comments on these choices from appropriate members of the CMI and the legacy Covid-19 Actuarial Response Group. Take appropriate account of any feedback.

  • Step 4: Build a model which uses the mortality data to assess excess mortality in each territory, drawing inspiration from the approach used in CMI Working Paper 180.

  • Step 5: Analyse the results, with particular attention to the excess mortality experienced by the territories identified in step 2 relative to the other countries.

  • Step 6: Produce a summary of the findings for discussion and invite input from appropriate members of the CMI and the legacy Covid-19 Actuarial Response Group. Take appropriate account of any feedback.

  • Step 7: Produce a written report summarising the exercise. Produce a slide deck presentation reflecting the report and deliver a webinar covering this content.

Please note that this is a provisional plan and it is possible that I may make some minor amendments as things progress. However I do not intend to deviate significantly from this provisional plan and I judge that this commitment is important because this is what I will have a democratic mandate to pursue.

What difficulties do I anticipate and how will I tackle these?

I do not expect any insurmountable obstacles with this investigation. However I do anticipate that I may run into some challenges. I have detailed these below, together with how I intend to handle them:

Lack of co-operation from my peers with longevity expertise

I do not anticipate this to be an issue! The most likely way this situation could arise would be due to conflicting commitments. I would endeavour to accommodate the needs of my peers as best I could, potentially delaying my deliverables if necessary. I could also be selective with who I choose to involve, restricting engagement to those with capacity to do so.

Technical challenges with the calculations

Invariably I will encounter some obstacles (e.g. data issues) but I do not anticipate anything insurmountable. Moreover, I can consult the authors of CMI Working Paper 180 for inspiration if I run into anything which really stumps me.

What are the deliverables?

As with the other investigations, I will produce a report that consolidates the answer I have reached with respect to that specific question. Each report will be accompanied by a slide deck presentation that I will create and deliver in a webinar format.

I see no immediate reason why I cannot be fully transparent with Investigation 2. I will be using public data sources and corresponding on matters which I do not perceive as sensitive.

For the avoidance of doubt, I will make clear to all parties that my intention is to publish the correspondence and I will obtain their permission to do so. I will also redact any personal details (e.g. email addresses) when making the correspondence available.

What deadline will I work towards?

I am aiming to produce all deliverables for Investigation 2 during the first 18 months of my election. My expectation is that this is a deadline I should be able to meet. However I will be dependent on others providing their correspondence in good time and any delays from these third parties could lead to the delivery being pushed back. In addition I may find that the analysis is more time consuming than I anticipated, particularly validating the underlying data; if so then I may need to revisit my target delivery date.